One other Ayatollah has been put in, one other Shah waits within the wings – however neither is an answer for a brand new Iran, writes John Bercow.
A protester holds up an image of Mojtaba Khamenei throughout professional Ayatollah rally London (Picture: Getty)
The killing of Ali Khamenei didn’t deliver the Islamic Republic to a right away breaking level. As a substitute, it revealed one thing maybe much more telling: a regime trapped at a useless finish.
Inside days, Iran’s Meeting of Specialists elevated his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, to the place of supreme chief—the primary efficient father-to-son switch of energy because the 1979 revolution that overthrew the monarchy. Mojtaba Khamenei is actually his father’s model, however weaker—exercising far much less affect over the system.
Slightly than projecting power, the transfer demonstrated the regime’s desperation and despondency. Like a drowning man greedy at straws, the management turned to the one determine it believed would possibly maintain the system collectively. In actuality, it had little alternative however to pick Khamenei’s son—not least as a result of he carries his father’s identify and maintains deep ties to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the regime’s safety equipment.
Holding the regime’s ranks closed throughout wartime was definitely a consideration. However the deeper motive behind putting in the youthful Khamenei is the management’s worry of one other nationwide rebellion. If the January 2026 rebellion is any indication, the following one might very nicely be broader in scope and much more ferocious in depth.
Mojtaba Khamenei, a cleric who spent a lot of his profession behind the scenes inside his father’s workplace, now inherits a state dealing with essentially the most extreme disaster in its fashionable historical past.
For a lot of Iranians, the emergence of a dynastic succession in a system that after outlined itself by way of revolutionary legitimacy dangers reinforcing the notion that the Islamic Republic has turn into much less a republic than a closed political order – one which reproduces itself by way of loyalty networks relatively than democratic consent.
That actuality raises an unavoidable query: if the ruling construction stays unchanged, the place would possibly significant political change come from?
Moments of transition typically invite superficial solutions. Western observers, understandably cautious of instability, regularly seek for acquainted names or figures who seem recognisable on the worldwide stage.
In latest weeks, a lot consideration has centered on diaspora gatherings and headline-grabbing claims of assist for Reza Pahlavi, the son of Iran’s final monarch, who was deposed 47 years in the past after a interval marked by despotism, one-party rule enforced by the infamous secret police generally known as SAVAK, and rampant corruption.
But political legitimacy is just not established by crowd estimates or social-media amplification. It rests on credibility, sacrifice and sustained engagement with the individuals whose future is at stake.
Reza Pahlavi’s public profile derives principally from lineage. That alone is just not a democratic credential. Iran’s latest historical past ought to warning in opposition to assuming that hereditary affiliation routinely interprets into political viability. Our latest expertise in Iraq, with figures corresponding to Ahmad Chalabi, warrants excessive warning.
Certainly, the Islamic Republic itself emerged partly from fashionable rejection of a hereditary system of energy.
The Iranian individuals have repeatedly signalled their rejection of each clerical authoritarianism and a return to monarchy, chanting within the streets: “Down with the oppressor – be it the Shah or the mullah.”
Their demand is just not for recycled authority, however for democratic renewal.
If severe alternate options are to be thought of, consideration should flip to actions which have demonstrated endurance, organisation and readability of function over time.
For greater than 4 a long time, the Nationwide Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI) has introduced itself as an organised opposition to the clerical regime. Tens of 1000’s of activists related to its foremost constituent organisation, the Folks’s Mojahedin Organisation of Iran (MEK), have confronted imprisonment, torture and execution. Its networks inside Iran proceed to function at appreciable private threat and have been liable for exposing Iran’s nuclear weapons programme. No matter one’s prior assumptions, it’s indeniable that it is a motion solid by way of sacrifice relatively than comfort.
At its helm stands Maryam Rajavi.
Rajavi has spent a long time advocating a democratic different to each theocratic rule and hereditary monarchy. Underneath her management, ladies have assumed outstanding roles throughout the motion – a pointed distinction to the misogyny institutionalised by the present regime.
Extra importantly, she has articulated a 10-point plan outlining a future Iranian republic based mostly on common suffrage, free elections, separation of faith and state, gender equality, the abolition of the demise penalty, minority autonomy inside a unified Iran, and a non-nuclear republic.
These commitments are neither summary nor rhetorical. They represent a structured roadmap for transition — exactly the sort of readability important in moments of political rupture.
The decisive query now confronting Iran is whether or not Mojtaba Khamenei’s management will consolidate the prevailing system, deepen its reliance on the safety equipment, or as an alternative speed up the pressures which are already pushing the regime towards disaster.
Historical past reveals that political transitions hardly ever succeed by way of spontaneous upheaval alone. They succeed when organised political forces with legitimacy, construction, and a transparent programme are ready to step ahead.
Cognisant of this actuality, instantly following the studies of Ali Khamenei’s demise, the Nationwide Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI) introduced the formation of a provisional authorities based mostly on Maryam Rajavi’s Ten-Level Plan.
The succession might purchase the regime time, nevertheless it can not save the sinking ship. The opposition has supplied a really completely different different.
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It’s time for the West to relinquish the established order and align itself with an rising future.
John Bercow served as Speaker of the Home of Commons from 2009 to 2019.
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