On his 66th birthday, Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor’s arrest sends shockwaves by way of the monarchy, echoing previous royal scandals.
Andrew’s arrest is a PR catastrophe for the royals, says Alexander Larman (Picture: Getty)
Information that Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor has been arrested – on his 66th birthday, no much less – is the best existential menace to the popularity of the monarchy for the reason that abdication of Edward VIII in 1936, and in lots of regards worse. Again then, the king was abdicating for causes that most individuals may perceive, if not essentially sympathise with.
Though it was much more sophisticated than merely giving up the throne for the love of Wallis Simpson, it was additionally a reminder that generally the story may reduce by way of to the general public in essentially the most brutal and easy of how.
After the preliminary wave of sympathy for the previous king handed, his former topics regarded him with contempt for what they noticed as his betrayal: passing on his better tasks for the sake of his egocentric pleasure. That has been historical past’s judgement, even earlier than his Nazi hyperlinks had been revealed.
The previous Duke of York shouldn’t be in the identical state of affairs because the Duke of Windsor. For a begin, despite the fact that he stays eighth in line to the throne, there has by no means been any life like chance that he would turn into king; subsequently, the royals have been eager to forged Andrew adrift as brutally and swiftly as they will.
The truth that he may be taken into custody by the police has been anticipated for a while by each Sir Keir Starmer and King Charles, and now the royals should take into account the very best and worst-case eventualities on this state of affairs.
Judged purely from a PR perspective, and talking bluntly, maybe the very best end result could be for Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor to be charged and placed on trial, with out worry or favour, on fees of committing misconduct in public workplace, and to be acquitted earlier than leaving court docket with no stain on his character.
Whereas this presently seems to be extremely unlikely, provided that the proof in opposition to him has been so publicly introduced because of the leaks from the Epstein recordsdata, Andrew may use a few of the hundreds of thousands he inherited from his late mom to pay the very best legal professionals within the nation, a lot of whom would little doubt relish the prospect to tackle a case that might immeasurably elevate their profiles within the occasion of an acquittal.
If Andrew may stroll out of court docket a free man, then he may resume the life that he has needed to placed on maintain for years now, for higher or for worse.
The worst end result, nevertheless, comes very shut on the heels of that one. It includes the identical primary equipment of his being charged, placed on trial – which, no matter occurs, would be the most rigorously reported court docket case in dwelling reminiscence on a global stage, which can deliver investigation into the affairs of the royal household like nothing else that has ever occurred – after which convicted of a severe crime.
Learn extra: The senior royal convicted of a felony offence as ex-Prince Andrew arrested
The thought of Andrew being imprisoned, and the attendant safety dangers that that might contain, would make him little lower than the British equal of Nicolas Sarkozy, who skilfully spun his personal imprisonment on corruption fees right into a PR triumph that allowed him to pose as a superb man who had been wronged by a vindictive state.
No such goodwill is more likely to be out there to the previous Duke of York.
Whereas it’s unsure what’s going to occur to him over the approaching days, weeks and months, there isn’t any groundswell of assist in any space for the disgraced royal, other than a number of individuals who imagine within the presumption of innocence earlier than guilt is confirmed.
For the overwhelming majority of the British public, who’ve been watching the sluggish drip of proof in opposition to Andrew accrue, even earlier than the Epstein recordsdata burst into the general public area in such spectacular, reputation-devastating style, his arrest appears the one logical growth to a saga that has been stuffed with twists and turns.
The broader royal household might be trying to separate themselves from their scandal-plagued former prince no matter occurs. Charles might be cursing the information that this 12 months was speculated to be a reboot for the Agency after a difficult and troubled interval, and that hope has now been blown out of the water.
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This isn’t a second abdication disaster, and even the aftermath of Princess Diana’s loss of life. Unprecedented and tragic although each these occasions are, they might be managed and handled. That is unknown territory and no person, least of all of the king, can predict what’s going to occur subsequent.
• Alexander Larman is writer of The Crown in Disaster, Energy and Glory and The Windsors at Warfare
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